Scope Trimmer | Decision Ledger for Claude

If an entrepreneur "adopted" this product today, here's the realistic math.

Fermi summary

If you land 150 paying users at $8/mo that's $14.4k ARR - call it an 11% shot - and year-one you'll spend more building it than you earn back.

Market size (TAM)

$7.2M

~600k active Claude Code / Claude Pro power users who run software projects × ~$12/yr realistic willingness-to-pay for a single productivity skill

Year-1 ARR range

$2k - $54k

midpoint $14k

Gross margin

88%

Investment to production

$7k

Dev: $2k to productionize skill packaging, persistence layer, and multi-user auth. Marketing: $3k for targeted outreach to Claude Code commu

Probability of success

11%

P(reaching mid case in 12 months)

Expected take-home Y1

$-5612

probability-weighted, after investment

Go-to-market motion

ProductHunt launch + Claude skills marketplace listing → organic Claude community word-of-mouth → conversion at $8-15/mo per seat, targeting indie hackers and PMs who already pay for Claude.

Key risks

Anthropic ships native scope/decision logging inside Claude natively, nuking the market overnight with zero notice
Users discover a free 3-line system prompt replicates 80% of the value - willingness-to-pay collapses before you get traction
Distribution is entirely gated by Claude's skill discovery surface, which Anthropic controls and has not proven it converts well for third-party monetization
The logging/persistence layer (the 'remembers' differentiator) requires backend infra - if that's serverless or third-party, any outage kills the core value prop

Generated by the Wishdeal Factory financial-analysis agent. Numbers are honest Fermi estimates, not guarantees. Real outcomes depend on the operator. The studio is bullish on the engineering quality, agnostic on the business outcome.