Skilled Trades License Tracker ·

If an entrepreneur "adopted" this product today, here's the realistic math.

Fermi summary

Sell 50 B2B data subscriptions at $400/mo = $240k ARR; there's roughly a 17% chance you get there in 12 months, meaning expected year-1 take-home barely covers your investment - the real bet is year 2.

Market size (TAM)

$12.0M

~1,500 B2B buyers (contractor liability insurers, field-service SaaS companies, tool distributors, contractor-focused fintech) × $8,000 avg annual data subscription spend

Year-1 ARR range

$36k - $720k

midpoint $240k

Gross margin

75%

Investment to production

$35k

Dev: $18k for 50-state scraper pipeline, normalization layer, API/webhook delivery, and billing. Data licensing: $4k for states that require

Probability of success

17%

P(reaching mid case in 12 months)

Expected take-home Y1

$-4400

probability-weighted, after investment

Go-to-market motion

Cold email and LinkedIn outbound to contractor insurance marketing managers and VP Marketing at field-service SaaS (Jobber, ServiceTitan tier-2 competitors) → 12 demos/month → 2 closes/month at $400/mo average MRR.

Key risks

State licensing databases use wildly inconsistent formats, block automated access, and publish updates on irregular schedules - maintaining a reliable 50-state daily pipeline is a continuous ops burden that silently breaks and causes churn when it does
The freshness value proposition collapses in states with 30-90 day publication lags between license issuance and database update, which applies to roughly 20 states including California and Texas
Best-fit buyers (insurance carriers, national SaaS vendors) have 3-6 month procurement cycles with legal/security reviews, making it nearly impossible to close enough accounts to hit meaningful ARR in year 1

Generated by the Wishdeal Factory financial-analysis agent. Numbers are honest Fermi estimates, not guarantees. Real outcomes depend on the operator. The studio is bullish on the engineering quality, agnostic on the business outcome.