Financial analysis · adoption-ready estimate

MTG Bench ·

If an entrepreneur "adopted" this product today, here's the realistic math.

Fermi summary

If you grind past EDHRec's free tier and land 400 paying users at $12/mo, that's $57k ARR - but the math goes negative in year 1 and the free-tool moat is real.

Market size (TAM)

$18.0M

~3M competitive/serious MTG players globally × ~5% willing to pay for AI deck tooling × $120/yr avg - rest use free tools like EDHRec, Moxfield, Archidekt

Year-1 ARR range

$14k - $192k

midpoint $58k

Gross margin

72%

Investment to production

$20k

Dev: $9k for auth, billing, card-data sync pipeline, and multi-format support. Marketing: $7k for MTG YouTube/Twitch influencer seeding and

Probability of success

18%

P(reaching mid case in 12 months)

Expected take-home Y1

$-12576

probability-weighted, after investment

Go-to-market motion

Free tier with shareable deck links → organic seeding in r/EDH, r/CompetitiveEDH, and format-specific Discord servers → convert top brewers to $10-15/mo paid tier.

Key risks

EDHRec, Moxfield, and Archidekt already offer robust free deck analysis - MTG players have near-zero willingness to pay for what they currently get free
MTG meta rotates every 3-4 months (new sets, bans) requiring constant AI prompt tuning and card-data pipeline maintenance - ongoing cost, not one-time
Wizards of the Coast has a history of C&D actions against third-party tools that monetize around their IP; commercial use of card data at scale carries legal exposure

Generated by the Wishdeal Factory financial-analysis agent. Numbers are honest Fermi estimates, not guarantees. Real outcomes depend on the operator. The studio is bullish on the engineering quality, agnostic on the business outcome.